April 10, 2022
A Military Analysis of the Current Battlefield
Retired US Army General Mark Hertling wrote this clear and sobering Twitter thread about the likely strategy and tactics to be used in the upcoming battle in eastern Ukraine. Hertling was the commanding general of the Seventh Army in Europe and thus it was his job to be familiar with Russian army tactics. In particular, he says the use of tactical nuclear weapons is distinctly possible in this new phase of the war.
The Terrible Truth about Putin
As repressive as it was, the old Soviet Union was actually led by a collective leadership centered on the Politburo. This article points out how Vladimir Putin has now built something radically different – a personal dictatorship where the old guardrails against recklessness no longer exist. If so, how far will Putin go in Ukraine to win his home front war?
The Nazifying of Russia
If it wins, Russian internal propaganda is promoting the use of horrifying Nazi techniques to “denazify” Ukraine, as this article frankly describes.
Russian Support for the Invasion
Finally, this interview with a Russian-based pollster pours a bucket of cold water on the idea ordinary Russians will reject government propaganda and revolt because of the war. He found overwhelming support for the invasion, which is consistent with many interviews with ordinary Russians. When asked how reliable such polls are in an authoritarian state like Russia, he says his polls more accurately measure how people will behave. Russians have developed a culture during the Soviet era and now under Putin based on the importance of complying with the state and avoiding any open opposition. It will take decades for this type of compliance culture to fade.