Foreign Policy, General, Politics, Uncategorized

A Battle for America’s Soul

 
I believe that war should never be resorted to when, or as long as, it is honorably possible to avoid it. I respect all men and women who from high motives and with sanity and self-respect do all they can to avert war. I advocate preparation for war in order to avert war; and I should never advocate war unless it were the only alternative to dishonor.

Theodore Roosevelt, “America the Unready”, Theodore Roosevelt, An Autobiography, 1913

I recently had the somber honor of visiting the American cemetery in Normandy, France. One cannot look out over the sea of white crosses stretching toward Omaha Beach without thinking of the hopes and dreams of the young men who never made it past that spot on D-Day. Two of Theodore Roosevelt’s sons – Theodore Jr., and Quentin – rest amidst those crosses. It forces you to confront the cost of war and why Theodore Roosevelt’s respect for those who try to avoid it should command our respect as well.

Donald Trump should have made a pilgrimage of his own to this site before he began our current war against Iran. Perhaps this somber memorial would have made him reconsider the need for this war or at least identify a clear objective and then convince the American people of its necessity. Instead, he unilaterally embarked on another forever war that strains American resources, trashes our reputation, and thus our influence in a region far from our own shores.

In my series “Nationalist Foreign Relations – A History”, I said the world was moving from a period of great power rivalry to a world where there are no superpowers. By beginning this war, President Trump has recklessly accelerated this process. A prudent stewardship of our domestic, economic and foreign assets would have positioned the US to be the “great balancer” in a world of diffused power. Instead, President Trump has essentially declared war on the world by our blockade of Iran and is exhausting our economic and military assets in prosecuting this conflict. The net result will likely position China, not the US, as the great balancer in a world newly desperate for security and respect.

In an uncharacteristic display of legal humility, Trump has not tried to cloak the war under the provisions of the Global War on Terror authorized after the 9/11 attacks. On March 2, he sent Congress the notice of the conflict required under the War Powers Resolution, thus triggering a process that would force a justification of the war. Congress must pass an Authorization of Military Force (AUMF) by April 29 for it to continue. If it doesn’t, the President must begin the process of withdrawing American troops, which must be completed within 30 days.

The two sides are far apart in their negotiations, so the conflict will still be raging in some form by the April 29 deadline. The President may claim we are winning and that peace is at hand. He will try to shame Congress into authorization by saying they must support the troops in combat. If these shibboleths don’t work, he will resort to the time-honored tactic of claiming American credibility is at risk.

The congressional debate will try to define the true and achievable goals of this war. It will also highlight the monetary costs to the federal government and identify how we will raise the money to pay for it. It will also discuss the impact of this war on the American consumer and the world economy. However, it will also be about something even more fundamental and critical.

It will be a debate about America’s soul.

This war is a matter of choice, grounded in an unsustainable globalist assertion of military supremacy. Like the little Dutch boy, Donald Trump is using our precious and dwindling resources to vainly plug the breach in the dike of American unipolarity in a multipolar world. The reasons have ranged from ending Iran’s nuclear program to establishing a new American hegemony over the Persian Gulf to control China. The former injects American power into the Middle East in a way that benefits only Israel. As the Israelis put it, we would regularly sacrifice American lives and money to help them in “mowing the grass” of Arab resentment, all for little advantage to ourselves. At best, it is a form of liberal interventionism that would make even Barack Obama blush. If global hegemony is the goal, any immediate gains will come only through an exercise in naked power and will thus reek of fascism. Such a war betrays the principles that have been the bedrock of our soft power and will damage our long-term security and influence in the world for decades.

The easy vote would be to gloss over all this and succumb to the siren song of “support the troops.” Opposition would be condemned as surrender, and opponents as terrorist sympathizers. In response, progressive nationalists should quote Donald Trump’s promises to end forever wars like this and focus on rebuilding our own country. They should point out that Iran’s assertion of control over the Straits of Hormuz has already met with strong opposition from European and Asian nations. We can support a truly multinational effort to enforce maritime law and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. As for nuclear weapons, the damage caused to Iran by the war will set back any Iranian program by 5-10 years. Even in the worst case, a nuclear Iran would simply create a new balance of power in the Middle East against Israel’s nuclear capabilities. The history of the Cold War and the India-Pakistan standoff shows that such a balance can actually calm conflicts rather than cause them.

More importantly, a defeat of an unrestricted Iranian AUMF would reassert the primacy of Congress‘s war powers. It would draw a constitutional line in the sand against further erosion of Congressional authority, in the backdrop of a conflict that has little impact on our national security. There may never be a better opportunity to preserve the necessary checks on Presidential war powers than now.

The upcoming debate will be among the most significant in American history. Is war still America’s last resort in international disputes, or will it now become our first resort? During that debate, House and Senate members would do well to remember the soldiers who lost their lives on D-Day and are memorialized by the white crosses of Normandy. They gave their lives believing America stood for freedom and peace. Congress will soon decide whether it still does.

Domestic Policy, Foreign Policy, Immigration

Trump’s Two Front War

Military strategists have long warned about the risks of waging a two-front war. Nevertheless, President Trump intervened in Israel’s war on Iran while National Guard troops were deployed to quell resistance to immigration enforcement in California.  A prudent leader would resort to military force only after attempting to negotiate with an adversary possessing significant tools of resistance. Avoiding military force would be particularly advisable if the underlying policy enjoyed only tepid support at home. If negotiations still failed, threats of force would then be used, followed by the low-level exercises of force such as sanctions. Only when this failed would military force be used. 

The President arguably followed this path regarding Iran. Prior to Saturday’s attacks, the US and Iran were in active talks attempting to reach agreed-upon limits on Iran’s nuclear program. When this appeared to fail, the parties graduated to threats of force, which continued for several days. Sanctions had already been tried, and so the card of military force was played. The President appears to have successfully negotiated a ceasefire in the Iranian conflict. However, the uncertainty over the success of the bombing campaign means the temptation of “mission creep” and the risk of escalation to further military action remains.  

At the time, the President was already in a low-level military conflict here at home with Los Angeles and California about the enforcement of federal immigration law. Instead of following the traditional escalation protocol, Trump immediately turned to military force despite only tepid support for the intervention at home. There is another path he could have taken that might have avoided a military confrontation and achieved a lasting solution to the immigration issue.  

The administration should have first proposed a comprehensive immigration bill tightening enforcement and significantly reducing immigration levels. The legislation could have accomplished the goal of discouraging the employment of illegal immigrants and incentivizing self-deportation through  

  • A 10% employer tax on the salaries of an employer’s illegal immigrant employees. 
  • A requirement that those employers purchase insurance protecting third parties from injuries or damages by their immigrant employees. It would also reimburse government agencies for any welfare payments to those employees.  
  • A prohibition against refugees seeking permanent immigration status until they first return to their native countries.  

Employers would be forced to decide if these increased costs and risks would be worse than hiring American citizens. It would also finally force the real debate on our immigration policy that the nation has avoided for decades.  

What if globalists did not take this deal? Then, sanctions would be the next step, and Trump has a peaceful but big stick in his arsenal. He can announce that the US cannot host the 2028 Summer Olympic Games in Los Angeles because California’s resistance to federal authority may result in an internal military conflict and, as a result, we cannot guarantee the security of the games. This risk in such a threat would hopefully prompt globalist immigration enthusiasts to agree on reforms that reflect today’s world and establish an effective enforcement process.  If not, the President should make good on the threat.   

Partisans on both sides of the immigration debate will condemn this strategy. However, it recognizes that each side has economic and legal leverage. Admittedly divisive in tactics, it is potentially unifying in strategy by creating a road to a permanent resolution that gives American citizens hope and the peace of a better life. It is this objective, not regime change overseas, that should be the most crucial goal of the Trump Administration.  The risks are certainly worth the reward.

2024 Election, China, Foreign Policy, Politics, Realist Theory

2024 American Nationalist Voting Index Speaking Softly

This is the third in a series examining the issues in the 2024 presidential election. To see other articles in the series, click on the “2024 Elections” link under the heading “Politics” in the above menu.

Score

Harris -6 Trump +1.5

While Theodore Roosevelt was known to engage in bellicose rhetoric, his foreign policy as president was based on adroit diplomacy. Roosevelt knew that the world was in a transition where nations such as the United States, Germany and Japan were becoming powers as the British Empire was reaching its peak. He used diplomatic negotiation to prevent a German intervention in Venezuela and to stabilize great power rivalries in Europe and in Asia, thus increasing America’s soft power.

The Biden-Harris ticket campaigned on the slogan “a foreign policy for the middle class”. After the election, they implemented the exact opposite- a policy that desperately tried to maintain the American unipolar hegemony of the 1990’s and extended our scarce resources far from our limited national interests.  The only people served by such a policy were business and foreign elites.

The correct worldview is that we now live in a period of great power competition on its way to becoming a G0 world; that is, a world where there are only regional powers and no superpowers. In a G0 world, the US would be the preeminent power in the Western Hemisphere with the ability to influence other issues in the world primarily by diplomacy. In the meantime, the US must live and act in the current great power reality while planning for this future state. I advocated abandoning liberal interventionism in favor of a realist approach in my series “Nationalist Foreign Policy -a History” (see the Foreign Policy tab above). Trump and Harris have very different philosophies on these crucial issues.

National Security Strategy

Every new presidential administration produces a document called a National Security Strategy (“NSS”) that shapes American foreign policy as well as its perception overseas. Comparing those of the Biden and Trump Administrations reveals a marked difference in strategic emphasis and priorities.

The Biden NSS speaks repeatedly of addressing “shared challenges” that “are not secondary to geopolitics but are at the very core of security and should be treated as such.” This would be accomplished by a “rules-based international order” that would grow “the connective tissue” between the US and other nations to spread democracy and strengthen national security. In addition, it expressly seeks to use foreign policy to “spur reform and rejuvenation domestically”.  A more globalist, liberal interventionist policy could not be imagined.  The best that can be said is that it is a statement of how to achieve a G0 world, while trying to wish away the geopolitical realities of today’s world.

In contrast, the NSS of the Trump Administration leads with the statement the government’s first duty is to its citizens. It expressly rests on a “principled realism”.  The most fundamental duty of the President is to protect the homeland, our way of life and American interests overseas. It recognizes that we are in a great power rivalry with China and Russia.  Our allies and other countries can “magnify our power” but are expected to help us address threats.

We can assume that Vice President Harris and former President Trump would implement these past strategies of their respective administrations, though the details may differ. Harris maybe even more globalist if her administration includes more radical “progressive” globalists as this article suggests. Based on their record and this possibility, she deserves a  minus  2 score. Trump has often said he believes in a more “transactional” foreign policy, which is consistent with a realist approach. His running mate Sen. JD Vance also wants to reorient American foreign policy away from the Biden view to a more realist strategy (see this article). The Trump– Vance ticket thus earns a plus 1.5 score on this fundamental issue.

Ukraine and European Policy

The Russo – Ukraine war has now ground on for more than two years. The Ukrainians achieved a dramatic victory in preventing Russian forces from taking Kyiv. We now know that a peace could have been negotiated at that time, but the US and Britain encouraged Ukraine to continue the war to attempt to recover the Donbas region and Crimea (see this article from Foreign Affairs magazine– subscription required).  The West, particularly the United States, then begin shipping arms to Ukraine, but only to the extent it did not provoke Russia to escalate the war into NATO. The result has been another “forever war” with no clear strategy or achievable goal at the cost of thousands of Ukrainian lives.

The war has also proved to be a crucible of fire testing the strength of NATO and our European relationship. Eastern Europe stepped up to support Ukraine while Western Europe, in particular Germany, gave limited support. Some NATO members such as Hungary actually opposed aid and overtly sympathized with Russia. These divisions call into question whether it is in our interest to remain a NATO member, especially in light of Europe’s potential defense capability (see this past post on the issue).

The next administration needs to concentrate on bringing peace to this conflict.  Ukraine will have to accept the loss of the Donbas and Crimea and Russia will have to accept the sovereignty and, thus the loss, of Ukraine. At the same time, we should have no illusions about Vladimir Putin.  He is a ruthless dictator who, among other war crimes, orchestrated the kidnapping of hundreds of Ukrainian children to be placed with Russians. We cannot have normal relations with him. For example, we should immediately kick the Russians off of the International Space Station.  

However, the increasing importance of East Asia and our neglect of Latin America require a reassessment of our NATO commitment. Vice President Harris appears committed to continuing the war in Ukraine and our current NATO commitment despite these realities and so deserves a minus 2.  In contrast, Trump pushed Europe to increase its defense spending to counter Russia and criticized Germany for its reliance on Russian oil and gas. He has said he would settle the Ukraine War even before he takes office, though without specifying how. His past efforts and current attitude merits a plus 1 score in this area.

Israel and Middle East Policy

As of this writing, Iran has just launched a barrage of missiles at Israel in retaliation for its killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon. It is an escalation of a war that has extended far beyond the originally stated goal of freeing the hostages that were taken during the October 7 raid of Hamas. Instead, Israel has used the raid as an excuse to widen the conflict to attack Hezbollah as well as expand its control over the West Bank in violation of the Oslo Accords and international law. They call it “mowing the grass”; i.e., not eliminating the problem, but simply keeping it under control.

As I argued in this post, we have an interest in a stable Middle East, not one regularly wracked by war that threatens world stability. Israel is a critical pillar of this stability, but so is the Arab and Muslim world. The Biden Administration has endangered this balance by tethering American policy to Israel without imposing any real costs to its expansive goals that contradict our own stated policies in support of a Palestinian state. Unfortunately, both Harris and Trump support this myopic policy, though Harris’s connections to pro-Palestinian groups in the Democratic Party make her more open to change. Trump successfully negotiated the Abraham Accords normalizing relations between Israel and some Arab states, but those are in tatters now. In light of these performances, Harris and Trump both receive a minus  2.

China and Asia

The vaunted “pivot to Asia” during the Obama Administration has become a circular pirouette during the Biden administration. Its concentration on Ukraine and Israel has led it to ignore crises in East Asia that directly threaten important Pacific Rim nations. China has effectively annexed the South China Sea in violation of international law and is now regularly challenging Philippine control of its seas. Meanwhile, Xi Jin-peng threatens Taiwan, which is only now starting to ramp up its defenses.  

A Chinese attempt to take over Taiwan would have severe economic and geopolitical consequences for the world.  Nevertheless, it would be impractical and possibly disastrous for the US to stop a military invasion. It is more likely that China would simply try to strangle the island with various levels of blockades.  The American people need to be prepared for the tariffs and other sacrifices that may be required to impress upon the Chinese leadership the costs to China of a forcible takeover.  We will need the support of East Asian nations in this effort. President Biden’s support of Israel has made this more difficult in Indonesia, the world’s most populous Muslim country that straddles key shipping lanes. Trump led the way in raising alarms about China’s rise during his administration while Harris’s approach is unknown. Thus, Trump receives a plus 1 on this issue and Harris gets a zero.

Conclusion

American foreign policy will succeed in the present and future multipolar world only if it is clear, flexible and based on realist international theory.  Donald Trump seems to understand the need to change our current unipolar and interventionist approach while Kamala Harris will likely continue it in some form.  It is time for an American president with Theodore Roosevelt’s courage and vision and who will lead the transition to a foreign policy that effectively serves the American people and, in the end, the rest of the world as well.