Tag: budgetdeficit

2024 Election, Nationalist Theory, Politics

2024 American Nationalist Voting Index – A Strong America

Bob Claude |

This is the sixth of a series examining the issues in the 2024 presidential election. To see previous articles, click on the “2024 Election” tab under the “Politics” tab above.

Score

Harris -7.5 Trump -.5

The USS Theodore Roosevelt has returned to San Diego after a nine-month deployment in the western Pacific and Middle East. The 6000 sailors on the “Big Stick” visited numerous ports and conducted over 9000 aerial sorties from the ship. We should be proud of them and all of our soldiers and sailors who work hard to keep us free.

However, their bravery would be futile if it was not backed by a nation whose people were equally determined to defend its national strength and values. We learned during the COVID pandemic that resilience – the ability to withstand an internal or external shock – is now a key factor in national strength. We know that China, Russia and other adversaries are forming alliances to challenge our security and values.  They are strong-willed, though the attraction of our values makes them weaker in the long term. Nevertheless, we are in a dangerous transition. If we ignore the very basics that keep a country sovereign and free, we risk losing our children’s future to those adversaries.

Border Security

The most fundamental duty of any government is to secure its own national borders. Kamala Harris was tasked by President Biden to be the “border czar” in charge of controlling the influx of migrants. By any measure, she miserably failed

The statistics don’t lie. As disclosed by Congressman Chip Roy, at least 7 million migrants illegally crossed the border, including an estimated 2 million “gotaways” who were never identified.  Worse still, the administration knew that thousands of past and new migrants had violent criminal histories yet were turned loose with simple notices to appear.

Then came the hypocrisy. No assistance was given to the border states initially hit by this wave of millions, so they were relocated to other cities where they were put up in hotels and given benefits American citizens could only hope for. Some children ended up being trafficked into child labor and sexual slavery.  The administration actually began flying migrants into the country on the theory that it relieved pressure on the border. When the electoral backlash finally hit, it claimed that it had no power to close the border and tried to use the crisis to blackmail Congress into passing aid to Israel and Ukraine. It didn’t work, and when the uproar continued, Biden suddenly found the authority to control the border that he said he did not have,

The inevitable threat to our internal national security that developed caught the administration by surprise. A new violent Venezuelan gang called Tren de Agua used the opportunity to set up bases in cities and began to terrorize residents. Reports emerged that thousands of Chinese men were crossing the border as well as potential Muslim extremists from the Middle East.

While President Biden bears ultimate responsibility, all of this was done on Kamala Harris’s watch as border czar. Indeed, it broadly matches her own past statements opposing strict immigration enforcement. Thus, there is no reason to believe it will not continue in a Harris Administration and thus rates a minus 3 score – the worst possible globalist score.

Donald Trump clearly appreciates the gravity of this crisis and has committed to closing the border.  Otherwise, he simply has used it as campaign fodder. Any solution will be through a process that will need broad legislative and public support, not an event like the slogan of “Mass Deportation Now”.  Nevertheless, Trump earns a plus 1.5 for promising to secure the border and committing to reverse in some way this threat to our national and economic security.

Manufacturing and Trade

In his book “The Tragedy of Great Power Politics”, realist international relations theorist John Mearsheimer cited manufacturing and infrastructure as key elements of a state’s inherent power. There are two ways to spur the development of manufacturing – tariffs or subsidies and tax expenditures. The Biden-Harris Administration opted for mainly subsidies through the Chips Act and the Inflation Reduction Act.  At the same time, they maintained most of the Trump tariffs on Chinese goods and imposed new restrictions. How has that plan worked out?

On these kinds of economic issues, I rely on Alan Tonelson of the website RealityChek, a former Foreign Policy magazine editor who examines economic issues from the nationalist standpoint. His post from October 18 analyzes the manufacturing data since Biden took office. It shows that, after taking into account the recovery from the COVID shock, manufacturing output has increased only marginally despite the new subsidies. Some sectors like construction materials actually declined. In contrast, spending on goods like steel rose more during the Trump Administration.

It is true that it can take years for manufacturers to build factories and respond to  governmental incentives.  The Biden – Harris Administration deserves credit for promoting manufacturing, but since the results are still uncertain, they earn just a .5 score. Trump has long been a champion of reshoring manufacturing but wants to rely more on much higher and across the board tariffs. His administration showed targeted tariffs can be successful with a minimal or no impact on inflation. Trump deserves credit for his commitment to the issue, but the uncertain impact of his current radical tariff proposals on inflation and the economy earns him just a plus 1.5.

Budget and the National Debt

The numbers are staggering and dangerous. Our national debt has swollen to the point where the interest payments alone now exceed $1 trillion.  The total debt equals over $106,000 per capita, a burden that will pass to our children.  The main causes are rising health care costs, changing demographics and insufficient revenues. The debt endangers the future of the dollar as a reserve currency because of the temptation to simply inflate the debt away. A true nationalist leader would call us to make the tax and spending sacrifices necessary to begin to close this gap.

Neither candidate exhibits any such leadership. Instead, Harris and Trump promise further cuts and expenditures that would swell the budget deficit. Trump and his new supporter Elon Musk trumpet a Department of Governmental Efficiency as a solution along with vague but huge tariffs. This ignores the fact that amount of the budget that is discretionary is dwarfed by entitlement programs.  In the end, government is not a business and should not be. Solutions will require inspirational leadership, not pandering to American’s lowest instincts.

A recent economic analysis shows both the Harris and Trump plans would increase the deficit, though Trump’s is worse. Trump thus deserves a minus 2.5 for his program, while Harris should still be ashamed of her minus 2 score. Leadership on this issue will have to wait, hopefully not after it’s too late.

Make America Healthy Again

The Robert F Kennedy, Jr., presidential campaign began as a reaction to the heavy-handedness of the COVID-19 pandemic response. While this website strongly supported the vaccine and the strategy of the response, the Kennedy campaign raised legitimate questions that merit an open investigation. In the process, Kennedy also highlighted the horrible state of American’s health and the contributing effect of food additives and our poor diets. His disclosures of conflicts of interest within federal health agencies are deeply disturbing. Even former Center for Disease Control head Dr. Robert Redfield has come out in support of Kennedy’s Make America Healthy Again program. Kennedy’s recent alliance with the Trump campaign potentially gives him the ability to implement these reforms.

Theodore Roosevelt greatly respected science. However, as an advocate of “the strenuous life”, he would be alarmed at the state of our nation’s health. The Biden- Harris response has been to lionize the bureaucrats and condemn Kennedy and other critics as “anti-science”. This is ironic since the scientific method squarely rests on the process of constant reexamination of hypotheses and theories, not their exaltation into a quasi-religious faith.  Their position deserves a minus 1 for it’s lackadaisical attitude toward a serious issue, On the other hand, will Trump really allow RFKJr to reform the health bureaucracy in the face of opposition from Big Pharma? Kennedy offered to do so in the last Trump administration but was dropped after such opposition. However, RFKJr’s higher profile and grassroots support would make that more difficult now and so we can hopefully assign a plus 1 to Trump in this election.

Political Violence

As someone who became President after an assassination and survived one himself, Theodore Roosevelt would be sickened by the violence and rhetoric of this campaign. TR was no slouch at using strong words, but they never sunk to the crudeness and inflammatory attacks we are seeing today.  He would admire Donald Trump’s defiance in the face of the Pennsylvania assassination attempt but condemn his sympathy for the January 6 insurrection.  He would also be distressed at the mild response of the Harris campaign to the two attempts and its toleration of personal attacks on Trump.

This will be one of the closest presidential elections in American history that will undoubtedly face real questions afterwards.  The best way to build legitimacy for the outcome is for the winning candidate to give the American people a civil and coherent discussion of the issues. Whether it is Biden’s flippant comment about jailing Trump or Trump’s crude insults of Harris, neither campaign has fully adopted such a respectful approach to the process and the electorate.  Both deserve a minus 2 score.  This does not differentiate them, but at least registers a strong rejection of the poor campaign they have inflicted on us.

Conclusion

Theodore Roosevelt called Americans to the hope and sacrifices that helped build the strong America of the twentieth century. In today’s world where that strength is under challenge by the despotism of China and Russia, the scores of Harris and Trump are positively dangerous. All of the issues in this area require the kind of foresight and vision that neither candidate seems able to muster. It will fall to the Congress and then the rest of us to insist that the winner show some of TR’s courageous commitment to our American future.

2020 Election, Domestic Policy, Government, Politics

An American Nationalist Voting Index – A Strong America

Bob Claude |

This is part of a series examining the issues in the presidential election. To see other articles in the series, click on the “2020 Elections” link above.

Score

Biden -1.5 Trump -1

The aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt is an impressive tool of American power, as is the rest of our armed forces.  However, a nation’s strength springs more from its internal stability than its military power. Without a strong American economy and people, the big stick would be an empty husk.  We would look strong on the outside, but would not have the full range of soft, social and economic power necessary to withstand a sustained challenge.  The issues affecting our strength to do so are diverse and worrisome.

Defense

The Trump Administration has increased defense spending almost every year and has proposed a significant increase in naval capacity.  The Pentagon has also begun pivoting strategy away from anti- terrorism to the great power threats of Russia and China.  Trump also recognized the importance of space exploration and development through supporting NASA and establishing the Space Force. However, the execution of this strategy is still foggy, and the swamp of defense procurement has yet to be addressed. Thus, Trump receives a +.5.

Biden has concentrated on measures to improve service members housing and benefits, which is certainly important.  Otherwise, he and other Democrats have talked about modernizing the force by retiring weapons systems and spending less. Modernization is necessary, but their murky statements on the subject cannot support anything other than a zero rating.

Infrastructure

Trump won the 2016 election on the three I’s – infrastructure, immigration, and international relations. While he made measurable progress in advancing the nationalist agenda on the last two, he has miserably failed to accomplish anything on the first.  It is true that the administration has relaxed some environmental rules that slowed down projects. However, this is not enough to repair our crumbling roads, bridges and ports.  He deserves a zero for this failure.

Biden has a relatively specific plan for an infrastructure program, though it features green projects as much as traditional transportation projects. Moreover, Democrats have made assurances that all projects would be subject to strict environmental review and thus dilatory litigation. Nevertheless, his plan earns him a +.5 for its detail. 

Reducing the Budget Deficit and a Strong Dollar

The use of the American dollar as the world’s reserve currency is one of our greatest sources of international power.  It helps protect us from inflation and makes American economic sanctions more effective, thus reducing the need for military action. To maintain this power, our national debt and budget deficit must remain under control so we don’t flood the world with dollar-denominated bonds.

This power is threatened by our increasing national debt, which has exceeded our annual gross domestic product since 2013.  The World Bank calculated that a debt level above 77% retards economic growth The Trump tax cuts increased the deficit and the rate of growth of the debt. Meanwhile, Biden has proposed billions of dollars of new programs with only a modest tax increase to pay for them. Both candidates are courting a Greek-style financial crisis from which America might never recover and each deserves a -1 for this fiscal profligacy.

Decoupling from China

Our dangerous dependence on China for vital materials was laid bare during the early days of the novel coronavirus pandemic when we discovered that the manufacturing of masks, ventilators and other vital health materials had largely been outsourced to the Chinese.  Much of the rare earth minerals necessary for solar panels and defense production also comes from China. President Trump’s tariffs began the process of shoring up our manufacturing sector and so rate a +.5.  In contrast, much of this unhealthy dependence developed under the Obama Administration and Biden has belittled the economic threat from China.  This justifies a -.5 score for him. 

Political Violence

As serious as the above issues are, they are dwarfed by the increasing threat of political violence on the left and right. A recent poll showed almost 33% of Democrats and Republicans believe that violence would be justified if their candidate lost the election.  The very legitimacy of our democracy is in the balance.

 Unfortunately, both candidates stoked these violent trends in the past.   President Trump has shamefully encouraged white nationalist groups and the QAnon conspiracy movement but acted forcefully against left-wing rioters in Portland and elsewhere. However, his express statements encouraging white nationalist groups requires a -1 score.

On the other hand, Biden was part of an Obama Administration that tacitly encouraged a ragtag group of Native Americans and radical environmentalists to block construction of the Dakota Access Pipeline even after the courts rejected all of their objections.  This toleration of lawlessness to achieve their policy goals on climate change encouraged the growth of Antifa and violent urban protests.  Biden has since criticized the current violence.  However, we need a President who unequivocally rejects political violence of all kinds and Biden’s equivocations deserves a -.5.

Conclusion

America can be strong only if it’s people are strong. The development of strength requires sacrifice and commitment, yet neither candidate is truly committed to that goal.  If we cannot find the will to build and maintain our true sources of national strength, the nation that produced Theodore Roosevelt will disappear into history, perhaps with democracy itself.