Tag: Trump

2020 Election, Politics

The Rebellion at the Capitol

Bob Claude |

The rebellion that took over the Capitol building has now thankfully been put down. Let’s be clear – no true American nationalist would promote or condone the kind of open revolution and vandalism at our nation’s Capitol that we saw today. The fact that it was incited by a sitting American President is even more shocking. President Trumps’ statement that called the rebels “special” to him and that he “loves” them only stokes the revolt. In contrast, President-elect Biden’s call for unity and rejection of this revolt should be our guiding principle. However, three things must first happen:

  1. All of the rebels need to be prosecuted to the full extent of the law, even for treason if sustained by the facts.
  2. Sen. Hawley and the other objectors to the Electoral College vote must immediately withdraw their objections. This is no time for political stunts.
  3. The next order of business for the Congress should be the impeachment and removal of President Trump for inciting sedition.

Only then can we move on to recover from this shameful day in our history.

Defense Policy, Foreign Policy

A Victory by Any other Name

Bob Claude |

War is hell, and so the only responsible goal of war is a clear and attainable victory.  This victory can take many forms. Far from being “precipitous”, President Trump’s decision to withdraw from Afghanistan and Iraq recognizes the fact of our victories in both conflicts. In contrast, the critics of this decision seek to deny them and expand the goals of both wars to encompass goals that history shows are unattainable in our lifetimes.

The despicable attacks of September 11, 2001 should have always been the touchstone of the definition of victory in the Afghan War. Our goals then were clear and simple – the defeat of Al Qaeda and its Taliban enablers.   We accomplished both objectives. Osama bin Laden lies dead at the hands of an American SEAL team and Al Qaeda has been decimated as an operational entity, reduced to being simply a slogan.  The Taliban were driven from power in Afghanistan and a new government installed that is more tolerant and internationally responsible.  It is not a perfect peace and the centuries-old ethnic rivalries and internal wars that defeated the British and the Russians means that the current government could fall and potentially be replaced by the Taliban. In that event, we have other levers of power to prevent another attack, such as immigration and trade sanctions. In the end, the future of Afghanistan will be up to the Afghan people. Its history proves that we cannot affect that decision any more than the British and Russian Empires could.  Our only interest is to prevent further terrorism from originating in Afghanistan and, as this article points out, our victory lays a solid groundwork for achieving this result.

Our intervention in the Syrian civil war was never necessary, but now ISIS has been defeated and no longer controls any territory.  This is a victory by any definition and justifies the complete withdrawal of all forces from Iraq and Syria.  Once again, our futile attempts to solve the religious and ethnic rivalries of the Middle East with American blood must come to an end.

After the final battle was won in the Spanish–American War, the War Department wanted Roosevelt’s Rough Riders and the army to remain in Cuba as an occupying force in clear conflict with our stated goal of supporting the Cuban people’s desire for independence.  In a letter that risked a court-martial, he said the army “must be moved at once or perish” from yellow fever and malaria.  Our soldiers must now be withdrawn from Afghanistan and Iraq to prevent similar unnecessary casualties. We can then concentrate on the new challenges of the multi-polar world and, in particular, those of China and Russia.   

2020 Election, Politics, Uncategorized

Donald Trump, Meet William of Occam

Bob Claude |

Living with uncertainty is a constant in life. We calculate and live with risk every time we step out of the door. One of those uncertainties comes from the practicality of relying on fallible human beings to operate mechanisms with which we have insufficient personal experience while we deal with other risks more within our control.  

During the Middle Ages, an English monk and philosopher named William of Occam formulated a famous axiom of epistemology (the philosophy of knowledge) for dealing with such uncertainties. Known as Occam’s Razor, it states that if there are two or more potential explanations for a phenomenon, the simplest explanation is the most likely.  Conspiracy theories rarely meet this standard since they require a geometric complexity of meetings, agreements and people to achieve the goal, which must all be accomplished in secret.  There is inevitably a simpler and more direct explanation for the result.  

Now, let’s apply this analysis to the results of the presidential election. We’ll start with the RealClearPolitics tabulations, which has not yet called the election for Biden. On their site, Biden has 259 electoral votes to President Trump’s 214. They awarded Nevada and Wisconsin to Biden, but still show Alaska, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia and Pennsylvania undecided. If we award him Alaska and North Carolina (where he is currently leading), it brings him to 232 electoral votes. In order to win, Trump must then prevail in a Wisconsin recount and overcome Biden leads in Pennsylvania and either Georgia or Arizona. Alternatively, he can lose the Wisconsin recount and win if he wins in Pennsylvania and both Arizona and Georgia. This requires him to find or invalidate at least 76,000 votes in three states with different voting systems and in multiple counties. Any fraudulent conspiracy that could have produced those votes would require an interstate series of agreements and the cooperation of tens, if not hundreds, of people in each state.  Moreover, the vast majority of those involved would have to keep the scheme a secret. Even if you believe the gap was caused by a series of election defects or mistakes, it would require different sources of malfunctions in multiple jurisdictions that would result in a 76,000 vote difference. 

There is no question that voting irregularities or mistakes should be investigated and rectified. However, the likelihood that irregularities occurring across multiple jurisdictions and using different voting methods produced a gap of over 75,000 votes is extremely small. There is a much simpler explanation – that the votes were cast by voters who indeed voted for Biden.  The results were close and not the “blue wave” the Democrats expected.  It would not be the first time significant numbers of voters split their votes for President and Congress between the parties and disappointed both sides.  But it is a well-known electoral phenomenon and the simplest and most likely explanation of the election results. 

It is thus time for all Americans to congratulate former Vice President Biden and Sen Harris on their victory and give them the titles they have won – President and Vice President-elect.  Republicans should insist on an investigation of any irregularities, but not expect a miracle. America needs to move on and American nationalists need to begin building and advocating their inevitable policy differences with the new administration.  If we do so positively and intelligently, we can still win important battles in the next four years and beyond.