Tag: Trump

Defense Policy, Foreign Policy

A Victory by Any other Name

Bob Claude |

War is hell, and so the only responsible goal of war is a clear and attainable victory.  This victory can take many forms. Far from being “precipitous”, President Trump’s decision to withdraw from Afghanistan and Iraq recognizes the fact of our victories in both conflicts. In contrast, the critics of this decision seek to deny them and expand the goals of both wars to encompass goals that history shows are unattainable in our lifetimes.

The despicable attacks of September 11, 2001 should have always been the touchstone of the definition of victory in the Afghan War. Our goals then were clear and simple – the defeat of Al Qaeda and its Taliban enablers.   We accomplished both objectives. Osama bin Laden lies dead at the hands of an American SEAL team and Al Qaeda has been decimated as an operational entity, reduced to being simply a slogan.  The Taliban were driven from power in Afghanistan and a new government installed that is more tolerant and internationally responsible.  It is not a perfect peace and the centuries-old ethnic rivalries and internal wars that defeated the British and the Russians means that the current government could fall and potentially be replaced by the Taliban. In that event, we have other levers of power to prevent another attack, such as immigration and trade sanctions. In the end, the future of Afghanistan will be up to the Afghan people. Its history proves that we cannot affect that decision any more than the British and Russian Empires could.  Our only interest is to prevent further terrorism from originating in Afghanistan and, as this article points out, our victory lays a solid groundwork for achieving this result.

Our intervention in the Syrian civil war was never necessary, but now ISIS has been defeated and no longer controls any territory.  This is a victory by any definition and justifies the complete withdrawal of all forces from Iraq and Syria.  Once again, our futile attempts to solve the religious and ethnic rivalries of the Middle East with American blood must come to an end.

After the final battle was won in the Spanish–American War, the War Department wanted Roosevelt’s Rough Riders and the army to remain in Cuba as an occupying force in clear conflict with our stated goal of supporting the Cuban people’s desire for independence.  In a letter that risked a court-martial, he said the army “must be moved at once or perish” from yellow fever and malaria.  Our soldiers must now be withdrawn from Afghanistan and Iraq to prevent similar unnecessary casualties. We can then concentrate on the new challenges of the multi-polar world and, in particular, those of China and Russia.   

2020 Election, Politics, Uncategorized

Donald Trump, Meet William of Occam

Bob Claude |

Living with uncertainty is a constant in life. We calculate and live with risk every time we step out of the door. One of those uncertainties comes from the practicality of relying on fallible human beings to operate mechanisms with which we have insufficient personal experience while we deal with other risks more within our control.  

During the Middle Ages, an English monk and philosopher named William of Occam formulated a famous axiom of epistemology (the philosophy of knowledge) for dealing with such uncertainties. Known as Occam’s Razor, it states that if there are two or more potential explanations for a phenomenon, the simplest explanation is the most likely.  Conspiracy theories rarely meet this standard since they require a geometric complexity of meetings, agreements and people to achieve the goal, which must all be accomplished in secret.  There is inevitably a simpler and more direct explanation for the result.  

Now, let’s apply this analysis to the results of the presidential election. We’ll start with the RealClearPolitics tabulations, which has not yet called the election for Biden. On their site, Biden has 259 electoral votes to President Trump’s 214. They awarded Nevada and Wisconsin to Biden, but still show Alaska, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia and Pennsylvania undecided. If we award him Alaska and North Carolina (where he is currently leading), it brings him to 232 electoral votes. In order to win, Trump must then prevail in a Wisconsin recount and overcome Biden leads in Pennsylvania and either Georgia or Arizona. Alternatively, he can lose the Wisconsin recount and win if he wins in Pennsylvania and both Arizona and Georgia. This requires him to find or invalidate at least 76,000 votes in three states with different voting systems and in multiple counties. Any fraudulent conspiracy that could have produced those votes would require an interstate series of agreements and the cooperation of tens, if not hundreds, of people in each state.  Moreover, the vast majority of those involved would have to keep the scheme a secret. Even if you believe the gap was caused by a series of election defects or mistakes, it would require different sources of malfunctions in multiple jurisdictions that would result in a 76,000 vote difference. 

There is no question that voting irregularities or mistakes should be investigated and rectified. However, the likelihood that irregularities occurring across multiple jurisdictions and using different voting methods produced a gap of over 75,000 votes is extremely small. There is a much simpler explanation – that the votes were cast by voters who indeed voted for Biden.  The results were close and not the “blue wave” the Democrats expected.  It would not be the first time significant numbers of voters split their votes for President and Congress between the parties and disappointed both sides.  But it is a well-known electoral phenomenon and the simplest and most likely explanation of the election results. 

It is thus time for all Americans to congratulate former Vice President Biden and Sen Harris on their victory and give them the titles they have won – President and Vice President-elect.  Republicans should insist on an investigation of any irregularities, but not expect a miracle. America needs to move on and American nationalists need to begin building and advocating their inevitable policy differences with the new administration.  If we do so positively and intelligently, we can still win important battles in the next four years and beyond. 

2020 Election, Politics

An American Nationalist Voting Index – Character and Final Score

Bob Claude |

This is part of a series examining the issues in the presidential election. To see other articles in the series. click on the “2020 Elections” link on the Home page.

Final Score

Issues (linked to past articles)BidenTrump
Governmental Reform0-1
Foreign Policy-2.5+1.5
Antitrust & Trade Regulation-.5+2.0
Conservation & the Environment+.5-.5
A Strong America-1.5-1.0
Character(0*2)=0(-3*2)=-6
FINAL SCORE-4.0-5.0

The American presidency is unique in the western world because it combines two functions of government generally separated in other countries – chief of state and chief of government. The chief of state is a unifying figure, often a king or queen, that symbolizes the history and values of the nation. In short, he or she symbolizes its character.  In contrast, the chief of government is usually a prime minister elected through a partisan democratic process and tasked with advocating and implementing certain public policies. Theodore Roosevelt filled both roles as well as any President in history precisely because he had a strong and intelligent character.

Up to now, this series has concentrated on the policies an American nationalist president should pursue; i.e, his role as prime minister. However, the chief of state role is equally important.  An American president who cannot symbolize the nation and its character cannot really be said to be nationalist.  Thus, the score for this role will be doubled to reflect this importance.

Which brings us to Donald Trump.  History may conclude that Trump’s most important accomplishment was winning the 2016 election and shattering the ossified political culture that existed over the previous generation. In one fell swoop, Trump proved the intellectual and political bankruptcy of the foreign policy of liberal hegemony and the domestic policy of small government conservatism.  He had a unique opportunity to develop a new political coalition around a nationalist agenda. Instead, he relied on a self-centered, divisive and authoritarian appeal that left American politics coarser and thus weakened our national character. His attempt to blackmail the Ukrainian government to dig up dirt on Biden justified impeachment (see my post here). His juvenile insults of his opponents reflected his own weakness as a democratic leader, not theirs (see this post).  He seemed to have utter contempt for the basics of American constitutional democracy. Finally, his erratic leadership on the coronavirus pandemic and recent dangerous statements about the efficacy of masks abdicated the chief of state’s role to soothe the nation and unify it to fight a common enemy.  These are just some of the ways Donald Trump has shown his complete inability to serve as an American chief of state.  Roosevelt would have been disgusted and horrified by such a lack of character in a President.  He thus deserves the worst score of -3, which, after doubling, becomes a -6. 

Biden comes off better only in comparison to Trump.   His years in the Senate and then the Vice-Presidency have given him both an appreciation of American democracy and the negotiating skills necessary to navigate the system successfully.  He is not a left-wing woke firebrand, though the same cannot be said of his running mate Sen. Kamala Harris. Her presence on the ticket raises the issue of how often a Biden-Harris Administration would descend into divisive identity politics.  Finally, Biden has definitely shown his age on the campaign trail and in the debates. Does he have the energy and the will to face down the firebrands in Congress or his own appointees (as TR did) and unite the country, or will he be simply a figurehead?  These uncertainties cannot support anything but a zero for Biden, and two times zero is still zero.

As the negative scores above show, we are faced with the sad fact that, once again, there is no true American nationalist running for President on a major party ticket this year.   Even if you exclude the character score, Trump only earns a net +1 for his policy accomplishments.   American nationalists are thus left with the agony of choosing the least globalist candidate in the race.

A Personal Decision

Given these scores, I cannot recommend or endorse either candidate in this election.  I admit that a small disagreement on the scores on any issue could tip the scales significantly either way.  However, Roosevelt’s comment about the importance of national character haunts me.   The decision comes down to whether Trump’s character and behavior best represents the American character.  I strongly believe it does not.

It is a bitter pill to swallow, but I will be voting for Biden in today’s election.  His administration will require strong oversight to control his globalist tendencies and thus I will be voting Republican for Congress. It is especially important that the Senate remain Republican since its confirmation powers over treaties and presidential appointments give it key powers in the foreign policy arena.   After this election is over, American nationalists will have the difficult task of rescuing the nationalist brand from the damage Trump has done to it and building for the 2022 and 2024 elections.

Go vote, and God bless America!